Hi GZ, sounds like a good plan ..... So Gold is on track to make it's biggest Quarterly loss on record according to CNBC.... I would have to fact check that.... but the precious metals have had a lousy year... I believe Gold is down about 26% this year...... there will be a time in the future where I will start to be looking at Gold from the long side...... but that is a ways off...... and is dependent upon the entire global interplay of our Global financial system.
I'm going to be paying lots of attention to what several of the key central banks actually do over the next few weeks...
John Paulson, who managed to turn a 1 Billion dollar Hedge Fund into a 16 Billion dollar fund by hitting a grand slam working with Goldman Sachs and buying a bunch of CDS/ CDO's and other instruments where he made 15 Billion out of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. He then had his Fund attract much more investment in it and by 17 months ago he had about 34 Billion under management and that was his high water mark..
He actually has 4 funds that an accredited investor could invest in and at least one of them was denominated in the price of Gold.... He also has big holdings in Gold and so he's had a rough year.... Bill Gross and the team at Pimco have lost over 3 % in the past 2 months.... no one makes money all the time.... the market is tremendously humbling for everyone.
I mention the High water mark because that mid 30 Billion dollar level was about where Julius Robertson's "Tiger Fund" hit that level I believe before his value oriented fund hit the skids and underperformed.... and he closed it in early 2000 and that was the capitulation that created the bottom in value stocks that then vastly outperformed the high beta high tech stocks....
Julian H. Robertson Jr. KNZM (born June 25, 1932) [1] is an American former hedge fund manager. Now retired, Robertson invests directly in other hedge funds, most run by former employees of Robertson's defunct hedge fund company.
He was born in Salisbury, North Carolina in the United States. Robertson founded the investment firm Tiger Management Corp., one of the earliest hedge funds. Robertson is credited with turning $8 million in start-up capital in 1980 into over $22 billion in the late 1990s, though that was followed by a fast downward spiral of investor withdrawals that ended with the fund closing in 2000.
In 1993, his compensation and share of Tiger's gain exceeded $300 million. His 2003 estimated net worth was over $400 million, and in March 2011 it was estimated by Forbes at $2.3 billion, a slight increase from the $2.2 billion estimated the previous year. [2] Robertson said in 2008 that he shorted subprime securities and made money through credit default swaps. [3] The following year, according to Forbes, Robertson's return on his $200-million personal trading account was 150 percent. [2]
I believe that George Soros had a fund that also hit the magic mid 30 billion in asset value around March of 2000 and then his Fund was eviscerated by the relentless bear market in the BigStock Bear Market of March 2000 and kind of double bottoming at the end of 2002 and then again in early 2003.. Obviously many .com, B2B, Telco companies etc ... went completely out of business. Cisco went from 82 down into the teens as did so many of the other great tech companies that are still around.....
Interesting how some of these cycles and patterns continually repeat.... or are analogue of a very similar earlier market environment....
Public predictions[ edit]Soros' book, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets (May 2008), described a "superbubble" that had built up over the past 25 years and was ready to collapse. This was the third in a series of books he has written that have predicted disaster. As he states:
I have a record of crying wolf ... I did it first in The Alchemy of Finance (in 1987), then in The Crisis of Global Capitalism (in 1998) and now in this book. So it's three books predicting disaster. (After) the boy cried wolf three times ... the wolf really came. [34]
He ascribes his own success to being able to recognize when his predictions are wrong.
I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong ... I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes. I very often used to get backaches due to the fact that I was wrong. Whenever you are wrong you have to fight or [take] flight. When [I] make the decision, the backache goes away. [34]
In February 2009, Soros said the world financial system had effectively disintegrated, adding that there was no prospect of a near-term resolution to the crisis. [35] "We witnessed the collapse of the financial system ... It was placed on life support, and it's still on life support. There's no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom."
I will see about fact checking his fund was going into March of 2000
John |
