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Biotech / Medical : BSD Medical (Long Term Investment Oriented)
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From: geoffrey Wren6/27/2013 2:02:58 PM
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No posts here for a few months.

I check out the Yahoo board sometimes. It is wild. Makes me think that there are more than a few day traders who like the action on this stock. Some present themselves as persistent short sellers, but may not be. Boards like this were common in the 1998-2000 period, but uncommon now.

Having lived with the stock for a few months, I tend to believe:

1. That this management team is too slick in its news reports.
2. That demand for their products has very little to do with end consumer demand. While the drug companies try to reach the end consumer directly with advertising, for this sort of product the consumer is still dependent on what the physician tells him. In other words, cancer patients demanding access to these products has little to do with their purchase. Purchasing decisions are made by committees, and many on the committees have vested interests in not initiating a big change in the treatment of cancer, and furthermore there is the somewhat arbitrary budgeting system, usually funded by government or large insurance companies. From an insurance company's perspective there is no profit in extending someone's life by 6 months at a cost of $25,000, for instance. There may be room for that to change with the MicroThermX microwave ablation systems. I can see the possibility for independent doctors here and abroad to set up shop for a one-service shop, similar to the way that Lasik eye doctors have set up shop. There are enough people who would pay for the treatment out of pocket if they understood a value to it and their own insurance would not pay.
3. It seems that the technology is worthwhile, but transforming that to sales will take a lot of time due to the factors mentioned above.
4. My guess is that the Terumo deal is going to have a slow ramp up.
5. Best result for BSDM investors is a takeover of the company. Could well happen within the next few years.
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