Hi Mike: As you know, Mr. Warren Buffett opined the following:
"To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights, or inside information. What's needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions, and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework."
My comments about the accounts receivable are directed with the "framework" comment of Buffett's in mind.
Whether you believe, whether I believe, or whether management believes that their heretofore writedowns for reserves are sufficient to cover the possible future lost revenue previously booked or the doubtful portions of the accounts receivable happens to be almost immaterial at this point.
As an aside, I might suggest that this situation has the earmarks of one of the few battles that WB lost in his life. Remember the Buffalo Evening News vs. the Courier Express? Over the years, the ultimate outcome has been a major success for WB, but the authorities (court)
ruled against him and kept his head under water for a few years against the expectations and judgement of him and all the market experts.
Anyway, the political and legal environment in Albany (in particular, the liberal minded Attorney General's office) is such that they, IMHO, are prepared to chalk up some political capital on this one. I believe that the Oxford situation is to New York State as the Columbia Health Care situation is to the Justice Department. Please do not misunderstand and think that I am speaking from a prosecutorial standpoint on Oxford. I do not think that there is any of the type of culpability at Oxford as exists over at Columbia. But the political prize for the NYS regulators sticking there nose into this is significant.
I do know that the lawyers in Albany are working there butts off to understand this thing. You do not have anywhere near this kind of activity out of CT right now. The NY lawyers and regulators in the Insurance Department have talked to anyone involved directly or even on the periphery to help them get a handle on this. Then, IMHO, they will back into a rationale as to why they as the champion of the little guy in need of good, clean, honest health care will twist the demon Oxford's arm in public.
Anyway, I hope this helps somewhat. I only brought it up in circumspect earlier because I read your post that you were overloading the portfolio. I don't mean to instruct you or anyone else on levels of investing here, Lord knows I've got my losers. (PS: I do expect to get flamed:-)
And this IS just one person's opinion. I believe that it may be prudent to hold until the smoke clears that was created by the sudden cancellation of Mr. Wiggins from the RS Conference. I think that once NYS says anything in public then most of the skeletons will be out of the closet.
PS, Mike, can you elucidate on the following sentence you posted two weeks ago?
<<A pure rumor of questionable validity was floated to me that low-level Oxford employees are buying up the stock.>>
email me if you like.
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