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Technology Stocks : Creative Labs (CREAF)
CREAF 0.448-12.1%Dec 17 12:59 PM EST
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To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (6661)12/6/1997 10:24:00 PM
From: Hitch  Read Replies (1) of 13925
 
Douglas, it looks like we are thinking along the same lines. With the figures that I used I may have been a bit pessimistic with around 3% rev growth for this quarter, but I feel that 14% may be a bit on the optimistic side at this time. I used the lowest (10%) number for growth in the US/Europe markets and the highest (20%) number for sales decline in Asia and came out with about +3% for this quarter. Even at the +3% CREAF will do very well this quarter in earnings and I would not be at all surprised to see sales growth much higher than this +3% (as your figures would suggest). +3, +14 or anything in between and what we have is a very underpriced CREAF security with upside potential of 100% or more in the next few to several months, assuming that our numbers are in the ballpark and CREATIVE continues to stay competitive with their products.
If we could throw in an boxmaker deal or two all bets are off on where this stock may go. Just one boxmaker deal would cause REV to jump significantly and that (REV growth) has been the problem in recent quarters.
I am not one to say that things can't get worse, but it would look at this time as if the BAD NEWS is already built into this stock and that future news should result in upward pressure on the stock price.

All of the above is of course just my HO.

I welcome input from anyone that wishes to do so. I, like most others on this thread am here to share my thoughts and to learn from others.

Best Wishes

Hitch
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