What leads you to believe they are going to buy grapes?
They haven't in the past, they haven't said they will, and no one
has offered to sell them grapes.
Mr. Landi's figure that they can produce 3500 cases a day is simply
ridiculous and without foundation. Wineries are valued by crush
capacity and storage capacity. These numbers are on an annual basis,
not daily, because the grapes are seasonal. Bottling capacity only
denotes how fast the bottling machine will work -- it really tells
us little about annual production capacity except that it must be
way less than 3500 cases a day.
In summary, my points are:
1. The 17 acre vineyard will produce no more than 3500 cases a year.
2. The crush and storage capacities are unknown, but we do know the
winery area is itself limited to 10,000 square feet. No more, no
less. All equipment, storage, and work areas must fit in this space.
3. We know the bottling capacity which determines how fast the
barrels can be emptied. You have to empty a barrel before you can
fill it again.
4. Mr. Landi's production capacity figure of 3500 cases a day is
way out of line.
5. The winery could buy grapes, but it has no history or experience
in this area.
6. The press release did not reflect the true price paid for the
property nor how how Mr. Lego is being compensated.
7. Mr. Lego was anxious to free himself of the property.
Anyone can say "call for your certs", but does it help anyone decide whether or not to buy this stock or understand why a stock is
selling at the price it is? No. If you don't appreciate fundamental
analysis of a stock, maybe another reader will. In the meantime,
you go right ahead and shake your pompoms. |
