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Non-Tech : Claire's Stores (CLE) NYSE
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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (470)12/7/1997 2:50:00 AM
From: Brad Bolen  Read Replies (1) of 619
 
If you are intereste, there is probably a bibliography in the "Stocks for the Long Run" book. I did not get that 'into' their particular study(s) except in that I have heard many whom I respect speak of it.

Also, I have seen enough interviews with true Academics( who cannot agree, of course) that I was convinced that I should do more up to date research before I make such bold claims--the very same you are making here--concerning market effeciency, strong-weak-or otherwise.

I am not about to play the documentation game here...I am much to into that with my dissertation. However, I do know that the Random Walk is not the latest and greatest as far as your argument--right or wrong--is concerned.

I can only suspect that any model as common as a 'head and shoulders' is itself discounted into stocks so as not to work, as suggested by Random Walk Theory. However, there are much more sophisticated methods than archaic one's such as that.

Practically speaking, I know I am not buying any more stocks below their 200 day MA's in this market. Ancedotal evidence be damned.

Finally, Random Walk Theory does not say that one cannot consistently beat the averages. It just suggests that the number of of people who do does not fall outside the standard deviations of luck. What I often wonder is, does that bell curve roughly mimic the bell curve of intelligence. And how does one study that?

B.
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