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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Brumar89 who wrote (725254)7/8/2013 2:28:49 PM
From: puborectalis  Read Replies (2) of 1582889
 
the Gallup organization tried to explain why its polls of the 2012 presidential election turned out to be so wrong—Gallup’s final tracking poll indicated a 49 percent to 48 percent win for Mitt Romney, when in fact Barack Obama won by about 52-48. But the problem wasn’t just the final poll. Throughout the race, Gallup’s polls tended to be outliers that favored the Republican candidate. As a point of comparison, here’s how Gallup’s daily tracking poll fared against the Obama data team’s internal tracking poll, which wound up being highly accurate (more on that tomorrow):

Once the election results rolled in and it was clear Gallup had blown it, the venerable organization (it has polled presidential races since 1936) committed to undertake a study to figure out where it had erred. The first results were released at this morning’s press conference (here’s the executive summary).
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