Dovi- [DSL technologies]
I guess I don't share your enthusiasm for the DSL technologies. It seems that the street likes the deal and that is good for TXN, BUT do you really think that DSL is going to be the future? Isn't DSL just an attempt by the Baby Bells to keep their copper cage alive? With the increasing bandwidth of fiber optics and competition coming from all angles (@HOME,CVUS) I don't think DSL has a bright future.
Hopefully TXN can make some good profits helping the Bells futile attempts! I bought TXN for DSP's and think there is huge growth there even without the DSL side of the business. Separate question---What percentage of TXN's DSP revenues come from DSP's in modems (3COM)? Thanks--Dovi
Dovi,
Perhaps this is because you have not spent the past 24 months studying the DSL Industry, and since this is your first post in the Amati Thread and only 13 posts on SI you have 4,379 post to go to catch up with Pat.
No offense Dovi, just pointing out an important fact that 24 months of research is a lot, and with the aid of this thread and it's participants it makes for one heck of an education. I don't know how many threads on SI have over 30,000 posts, but I bet it's not many.
Most of the current inroads in Fiber are for the backbone. The Telcos can only replace Copper with FTTC Fiber to the Curb at a rate of 7% per year, and this works out to only 4% real world as new copper is installed.
One of the smartest men in the industry Ray Smith CEO of Bell Atlantic was quoted in Feb of 96:
"Some see ADSL as a short term solution, and I agree, Short term for the next forty years."
VDSL at 52Mb is the last mile soultion, it is cost effective to to run a single fiber to the neighborhood and have copper carry the load from a central point to the customer, rather than replace the entire Copper SpiderWeb in the neighborhood.
As you state there will be many competing technologies. I myself own a chunk of CVUS.
But having a cooper infrastructure in place with over 700 million lines world wide is a big advantage.
I've written the above many time in the past in this thread, in much greater detail, and have lost my Archive of most of the information. But this should, I hope, give you a small idea of the potential for DSL.
I don't know what percentage of TI's Revenues come from DSP's in modems, but 40% of their revenues come from DSP's, and that percentage will increase substantially as DSP's are poised to see the same growth and development in the next 10 years as Microprocessors have been done over the last decade.
Regards,
JW@KSC
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(snip)
Semiconductor revenues, including royalties from semiconductor licensees, now represent about 84 percent of
TI's revenues. Digital signal processors plus
mixed-signal/analog represent about 40 percent of
semiconductor. Memory, made up primarily of dynamic
random access memories (DRAMs), now accounts for about
20 percent of semiconductor. The remainder of semiconductor
is made up primarily of a broad range of advanced products,
including application specific integrated circuits,
reduced-instruction set microprocessors, microcontrollers and
standard logic.
A recent report by market research firm Dataquest forecasts
digital signal processing as the fastest growing product area in
the semiconductor market. TI estimates the digital signal
processing and related mixed-signal/analog market will grow
more than tenfold to about $50 billion over the next ten years.
TI is taking several actions to accelerate the growth of its digital
signal processing solutions. Recent announcements include a
$100 million venture fund to help seed the growth of new DSP
applications, and $25 million for additional university research
focused on DSP.
In early September, TI formally opened the Kilby Center, the
world's most advanced research center for silicon
manufacturing. The facility will serve as the technology base for
the ongoing creation of TI's leading edge DSP solutions.
ti.com
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