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Biotech / Medical : Alteon (ALT)
ALT 5.500+2.2%Jan 23 9:30 AM EST
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To: Lucky who wrote (178)12/7/1997 10:52:00 AM
From: Bill Tomko  Read Replies (1) of 318
 
To all The short discussion. I am confused by your logic. I will agree the the likelyhood is the price would trade down a little as the euphoria dies down. I would not be shocked to see some backing and filling for the tech. reasons htat have been mentioned. 7.50 to 8.00 could easliy be expected. A little lower could also happen paticularly if set against a general market decline. BUT it may not happen, it could just back and fill in the 8.00 to 9.00 range through the release of the clinical study this summer. It strikes me that you all arunning a large risk, the stock just backs and fills let alone the potenial to trade up some to say the 9 to 10 range, for the potenial of a very small profit. Namely a buck or two before transaction costs and tax.
My focus is more fundemental. The toxicity issue is dramically reduced. The problems of last fall and the cause of the fall from 7-9 to 2 in Feb was the toxicity reaction at the highest dose arm of the study and in very sick patients. The higher dosage arm was reduced and the study contiued. There have been at least 3 data reviews and no further indication of problems. The most recent review in Oct indicated that the data would support stat. significance and cont. the study.
Keep in mind this is adrug intented for sick pat. where it IS KNOWN THAT A HIGH % will suffer EXTREME sideefects and premature death. Assumeing even minium benifits are shown this is a drug which WILL BE APPROVED. While I would be the first to point out you never know until the studies are complete, the inferences of effectiveness have begun to accumulate, 1) 4'th year of the study with nemureous reviews and it continues,2) The Oct. review noted above3)The ESRD study where eneough data existed to convert to a PHASE III 4) the Lipid study where the findings supported the theory of how the drug worked 5) a team of with acess to far more data then we have and greater expertise have reviewed evrything and committed up to 200 million .
To everyone shorting this stock you should be aware that this drug could be in th eclass of EPO ( billion $ range). FDA approval, assuming a good clincial finding this summer, could come as early as the summer of 1999. This means the sales potenaills will be begun to be disc. starting the summer of 1998 and analyst coverage should be expanded starting in the next few months. This is and under owned stock and you could get your shorts handed to you.
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