[Old debate: cable vs. DSL]
<<<Hopefully TXN can make some good profits helping the Bells futile attempts!>>>
What makes you call the Bells' efforts "futile?" I would think it wise to give them another six months to a year to at least deploy before declaring their efforts a failure.
<<<I bought TXN for DSP's and think there is huge growth there even without the DSL side of the business.>>>
Judging from the words being spoken by TI's executives at recent conferences, they see networking as one of the four key drivers of the DSP market, and from their purchase of Amati, they obviously see DSL as an important component of that.
The following clips are from Rick Goerner's presentation at the DMT Tech Conference in Laguna Niguel, CA, this past week. Rick is TI's Vice President, Semiconductor Group and President of thier Silicon Systems subsidiary.
<<<. . .
If we look at what is driving the growth, three factors are largely responsible: The need for bandwidth expansion - we're seeing this in the cellular market and in the explosive growth of networking - more bandwidth means more DSPs. . . .
In wireless and modems we have a strong number two position and driving hard to be number one. We offer chip sets for all major components and are pushing the technology to a single-chip integrated DSP Solution. . . .
The growth in the demand for DSPs today can be seen in four major market areas: wireless communications, networking, mass storage and mass market and new applications. All these markets hold great opportunity. However, no one market dominates DSP applications. No more than 25 percent of DSP demand comes from any single market segment. . . .
Network connections in both the business and residential markets are projected to grow about 20 percent per year during the next three years. And every network connection - at both ends - will have a DSP Solution.
TI's programmable DSP has reshaped the modem market. A little more than a year ago, all modems were hardwired. Today, more than half of modems shipped have completely programmable DSPs. Next year, some 90 percent will. That means that modem users are no longer at the mercy of the next generation of modem speeds that make their equipment obsolete.
Thanks to TI's powerful line-up of DSPs, sales to modem manufacturers are expected to increase by more than 40 percent and LAN interconnects by 25 percent in 1998. . . .
Performance Explosion Enables Information Download
TI's focus on DSP Solutions was demonstrated once again last month when we strengthened our position in the networking market by acquiring Amati Communications. Amati is a world leader in digital modem or Digital Subscriber Line - DSL - technology which lets ordinary phone lines transmit data as much as 200 times faster than today's typical voiceband modems. . . .
The Amati acquisition is one more example of TI's strategy of being where the market is going before competitors. . . .>>>
You go on to ask:
<<<What percentage of TXN's DSP revenues come from DSP's in modems (3COM)?<<<
I'm not sure, but I do know they recently announced they'd shipped their 35 millionth chip to 3Com. How many chips do they ship in a year and how many years does this 35 million represent? I'll let you do the research.
As for the old cable vs. telco argument, it's become like a broken record on this thread. If you're interested, there are 29,000 posts and I'd guess about 1 or 2% touch on the subject in one way or another.
For telcos, offering highspeed bandwidth isn't just essential to gain customers for Internet connections but in the not too distant future they'll be losing voice customers to Internet telephony if they don't offer their own services. Do you think they'll lay down and die?
Study GTE's strategy and you'll begin to understand how deadly serious they are in meeting the challenges of a digital world.
The word "futile" doesn't enter my mind when I think of what telcos can do when they set their minds to it. Slow, yes. Methodical, yes. Thorough, yes. But not futile.
When you find the TXN-COMS numbers, let me know. I'm curious, too.
Regards,
Pat
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