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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 236.03

-1.4%

11:00 AM EST

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To: mike iles who wrote (24838)	12/7/1997 8:50:00 PM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (2) of 53903

Mike, << You're making this way more complicated than it is ... a point of clarification ... for me 'last' quarter is the Nov. quarter and 'this' quarter is, well .. this quarter. >> I don't think so. I was responding to: << Right now, as we speak they have a revenue run-rate (memory only) of $300M and an operating cost structure of about $390M. >> I just disagree with these numbers going into the 2nd quarter. To keep it simple if you wish, I believe MU will start this quarter with an asp of $4 to $4.25 not as you suggest of about $3. And will drop but not to $2 as you suggest b/c their memory mix is dynamically(no pun intended) changing. secondly I believe you are underestimating the cost reduction going on at MU which is reducing their chip cost to $3 to $3.25 for LAST quarter and I have heard figures as low as $2.50 but reluctant to say I agree with it...but do expect it to drop below $2.50 by end of Q2. Third the quarterly revenue will not be as low as you are guessing but higher (I admit I am guessing) because they are increasing their market share. I conservatively guessed 10% for Q1 and will guess the same for Q2. Fourth, the Mix of Q1 is probably ending Q1 at 50-50 for DRAM and SDRAM and as we turn the corner this year my guess is MU will be more like 25%Dram and 75% SDRAM b/c DELL and CPQ say it is to be that way. Hence the higher prices and margins and the cycle starts all over again watching SDRAM instead of DRAM drop every month. Of course we didn't touch on 64mb chips but there will be economies of scale there too for MU but 16mb is still the sweet spot at the moment. So again I say $300 for revenue is too low (looking at MU right now into their first Q) but rather $425 and cost of $390 is too high for costs given the CURRENT volume.... I think more like $340...and if MU gets another 10% increase in market share this quarter it will bump up costs a small % but will also bump up revenue a full 10% and that is where MU could have the upside surprise in earnings. Mike, If MU shows a high inventory on !0/16 I might tend to agree with some of your assessment of the problems, but given that SEA will not be able to fund new equipment as easily as before puts MU on equal footing with them and MU will perform better. Good Luck trading DavidG PS: MU should complain about korean bailout even if they were making a fortune(which they are not) only b/c the SEA is wasting money on products with a knowledge they will lose money. Why should we pay for this? Would you want to grow rice where it would cost you more money than if you bought it in the store and when you are financially strapped expect Uncle Sam to bail you out? He would turn around and say "what? are you crazy?"

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