Way off.
I reaserach constantly because I develop this technology for
a living and work closely with marketing and their research.
Basic math does not escape me... another 10 fold increase for
Dell aint in the cards.
High end PC's, low end PC's, STB's, Camcorders, TV's all have
their place. They do have differences and those differences
will become even greater in the next few years.
Here are the stats. 230 million TV's in america all of
which will have to be replaced OR, a STB will have to be
purchased just to enjoy digital TV. "Jupiter Communications
predicts that it will take until the year 2002 for TV-based
access devices to earn real market share--that is, 12.7
million households, or 22 percent of the consumer
online market, using Net TVs." By this time, IDC predicts
that 70% of the homes will have at least 1 PC, almost
double todays penetration rate.
With a STB, you'll be able to Web surf, email, perform
basic word processing, play games, watch 600 channels of
content and control your entire entertainment center.
There is a colossal market here, a higher volume potential
than the PC no doubt but penetration will be slow until
manufacturers figure out what features consumers want.
There is currently a lack of standards.
Your argument is then, "home consumers" are going to be
less enthusiastic about PC's because STB's will perform
a majority of the really necessary functions brain-dead
couch potatos care for.
Maybe, but those folks don't have a PC today anyway.
My argument is they will be seperate and distinct platforms
and us consumers, like always, will have to have 2 of each at
a minimum. Futhermore, STB's wont be able to do it
all for less money.
I remember when they first started integrating VCR's into
the TV set. Why do we still insist on buying them seperately?
Why do we by cameras and camcorders? Why do we have microwaves
and ovens? Why do we have vacume cleaners, carpet shampooers
and dust busters? Why must we have a sport sedan and a SUV?
Why must we have socket wrenches, box wrenches, pliers and
vise grips? All of these things are similar and can perform
the same basic tasks. The point is they are specialized.
You are probably one of those who thought that the ThighMaster
was going to put World's GYM out of business. Right?<ggg>
As for Apple and DEC in my portfolio... what, are you crazy?
Technology innovators are the sacraficial lambs of the
industry. I've written many a post on superior technology
loosing out.
Also, the definition of a high end PC is transient by nature
and they have never dominated. Don't you do any research? Price points have been falling since day one and
continue to do so.
Now to go off in the sub-zero weeds...
What always has dominated is the best value on the
price/performance curve. The price extremes represent neither.
Try this. Go into any Circuit City, Best Buy etc. Look
at any of their product catagories. There are options ranging
from a stripped down unexciting base model to the high end
all the bells-and-whistels model. Take camcorders for instance
that range in price from $500 to $1500. It's no accident
that the vast majority sell right at the $1000 price point.
It's the same for all eletronics, appliances, automobiles...
the list goes on. The same will continue to be true for PC's.
MEATHEAD |
