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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: IndependentValue who wrote (51978)8/1/2013 4:09:11 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris  Read Replies (1) of 78644
 
Finally, I can’t see why clients would stop buying HDDs to the point where WDC will lose over 50% sales – care to elaborate on this point, I’m not sure I follow you on that? Are you referring to Dell etc.?
I am just making the point that enterprise/cloud is <50% of sales. In worst case, which likely won't happen, these companies might lose up to 50% of sales if all client devices went to SSD. Even 20-25% sales loss would cause significant drop in share price.

In fact, the situation is even more complicated. WDC only breaks down sales as: compute/non-compute/enterprise. Enterprise is about 10% of units shipped, but I was generous and allocated much more to that segment, since IMHO this undercounts drives actually used in enterprise/cloud.

BTW, I somewhat disagree with your view (which is also held by others) that "where once it was stored in a magnetic disk in a PC, it will now be stored on a magnetic disk in an enterprise cloud server". In fact, for Joe/Jane User, the disk on PC is largely empty and the need for storage on enterprise that is filled by demand is probably 1/2 to 1/3 of the disk space shipped on PCs. Yes, there are some backup, RAID considerations, so it's not as bad. But it's not even close to 100% replacement.

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