Hello All,
This is an old post that I did on P* I thought you might like to read. Please remember that the prices and dates are in the past so read this for info only.... DO NOT USE THIS INFORMATION FOR ANY CURRENT EVALUATIONS.. Please use the techniques and the evaluation process if you like them..
Hello Peter, I hope you're feeling better soon... I also hope you get to sleep soon!!!! First off, I download TC2000 every night.. I am always looking at new prices... When I look at BOP and MoneyStream, I am looking for TWO things, GREEN and Divergence!!!!!!! PQT-EC is a great example because it has both... Look at BOP first. Look at the two white lines. I look for the shorter white line to be going up faster then the longer white line. The longer one is price and the shorter one is BOP. This tells me that BOP is moving up (stronger) then price so I assume that price will catch up!!! When I look at MoneyStream I look for the same thing. Now look at the last 10 or so bars. They are all green which means that buying was overpowering selling.... MoneyStream is also green so these two indicators are telling me it's safe to continue looking at this stock. How many Green bars do you need before it's safe????? That's a personal decision that you will have to make. In the past I have seen many stocks that looked terrible in BOP and MoneyStream but went up in price anyway. What I try to do is stack the odds in my favor so I don't lose money... It doesn t always work but it does help... The one thing to look at with PQT-EC is the OBV at the bottom of the screen. It turned negative yesterday so I might hold off to see where it goes. You have to decide what level of importance you want to put on each of these indicators. A great example of what I mean is comparing Richard and myself and how we use these tools.. We both use them but in different ways. I start off with them and will not look closer at the stock's chart unless they pass this test. Richard looks at these indicators last and uses them for confirmation. Therefor he would give them less value then I would. Even though we use the indicators differently, there are many times when we buy the same stocks. Did I answer your questions??? Let me know what you think and please get to sleep!! Dave E.
Hello All, I found myself looking for a stock to buy this morning so I figured I'd document my steps and share them with you.. The first thing I did was run a scan in Wall Street Analyst for any stocks that were giving a buy signal for Parabolic SAR. Once I had my list of candidates it was off to the charts. I set my charts up so I am looking at Parabolic SAR, 5 day, 40 day MA crossover, 20% MA envelope around the 40 day MA and an MACD of 8-17-9. AMSY looks good on all counts. It's 5 day MA is above it's 40 day MA and price has broken above Parabolic SAR. MACD gave a buy a few days ago and my favorite, price has been trading sideways for the past week or so. At first look, this one looks like my type of buy. Now that my wallet has been teased, I must look under the covers to make sure this is the one. I first draw my support & Resistance lines connecting the lows from 3/28/95 and 7/15/95. Do these lines look right??? As they say back home on the farm,,, Looks like magic!!!! At almost every peek and valley there was support & Resistance depicted by these lines. I believe that the use of Support and Resistance lines is a must if you really want a good feel for the movement of a stock. I use .236, .382, .500, .618 above and below (-.236=below, 1.236=above) but you can use any numbers that work for you. It is now time to zoom in for the finally..... I zoom in from May to today to get a better look at the price movement and now I really like what I see. The S&R lines look very consistent and I think we are ready to move ahead. I through up a GANN FAN on the low of 8/15/95 and once again, I like what I see. To get an even better look I zoom in to see only August. Can you see the Support and Resistance of both the GANN and S&R Lines. It looks as if the are old friend and work in concert with each other. My wallet is crying out to me so I had better act fast!!!! It is time to through the whole bag of tricks at it and see if it is still standing when the dust clears.. The best way to do this is to list all the indicators and see what they say. Parabolic SAR gave a buy with price above SAR. 5-40 day MA crossover is Extremely Bullish. DMI is in Bullish Territory. The 45 day MA is long. The 9 day MA is long. The 5 day MA is long. A new 5 day high in price was confirmed by a similar new high for Acc-Dis. MACD is in Bullish Territory. The ADX is rising, the CCI Average just crossed into bullish territory and OBV just bounced off it's 40 day MA. This is enough for me to buy, which I did at $25.375. As is always the case, all my indicators did not tell me to buy. Many of my overbought/oversold indicators told me the stock was overbought. Two in particular were Bollinger Bands and Percent R:. I chose to ignore them in this case as I felt that the other indicators are better for a buy signal. Well, there you have it... As you can see, I didn't talk about BOP and MoneyStream. I did look at them in TC2000 after I did my chart work and they looked terrible. In fact, If I looked at them first I wouldn't have even look at the chart. Was this a mistake???? I guess we will all find out together... Man I feel like a guy standing out on a ledge ready to jump.... Oh well, this is how we all learn.
Here's one more to keep you reading.. Once again, please remember that this is an OLD post and may not be valid for today.....
Hello Peter, Man you must be bored!!!!! I need a secretary to keep up with your posts <g>. That's OK though so keep them coming!! I think I need to clarify the two scans a little. The first one (RS > 80, ER > 80 and Price < 30.) is done in TCPRO, which is the CD software. I do this so I am looking at good strong stocks. The number of stocks that fall out of this one would usually be 300 or so.... You only need to do it when the Rankings are updated which is about once a month I think.. The second scan is Richard's TC2000 smart scan and you would do it in TC2000. It looks like this: [Percent Change Last 5 Days] > .05 and [Volume Today] > [Volume Moving Average 6 Months] and [Closing Price Today] > [Highest Closing Price Last 6 Months] * .85 and [Closing Price Today] < 30.01 You then sort by [Percent Change Last 63 Days]. This is the exact way you would code the scan and most days you will get between 40 and 100 stocks with it. From there you would start looking at indicators and Tools to select a few winners from the list. Richard's Scan is built to look for stocks that have just broken out or look ready to start a break out.. Now I m ready to weed out the strong movers I set my screen to display Richard s OBV at the bottom. To do this I select On Balance Volume with a Moving Average = 0. I then select Moving Average of 40 on the Last Indicator. This will give me the OBV and it s 40 day MA. I look for the OBV above the 40 MA. I then put up MoneyStream(MS) and Balance Of Power(BOP). I will not pretend to fully understand either of these Indicators but they are very easy to read and have been good to me in the past. When looking at BOP I look for two things, Green and Divergence. Peter, the one thing you must remember is this system works for ME because I am looking for quick jumps and intend to stay in the stock for a week or so. If you are looking for longer term buys this may not be the way to go. The other thing to remember is that Systems tend to take on the personality of the TRADER and the SOFTWARE he/she uses!!! When I bought WOW I didn't really update my system to include it so I never mention it in my posts. Now that I have Advanced Get I need to review what I am doing and make some changes as I go along. My problem is this. If I start including Get into my posts how many people will be able to follow along???? Take you for example! I can give you my TC2000 scan examples and get you to 50 to 100 stocks, then examine them and get down to 20 or so, but what then???? Obviously you can't but all of them so I need to get you to the 3 to 5 stocks level and the only way I do that is by using WSA or WOW and some common indicators like 5-40 EMA crossovers, Parabolic SAR and maybe even some nice stack stuff that Jerry has given us. I can then follow that up with some GANN, FIB, S&R to nail down a selection. When I move into Get I'm not sure people are going to be able to follow wave counts and Regression Channels (well, maybe Regression Channels).. I am not sure how much my system will change but I do know it will be fun changing it!!!! I will make sure that it's fun or I won't do it.... Let me know if you have any more questions so I can cover them all and please,,, GET SOME REST!!!!!!!! Dave E.
A reply about Software follows:
That's a very good question but one that only you can answer. There are people on these Boards that only have TC2000 and they do very well picking stocks... You can do more with TC2000 that most of us realize.. Windows on Wall Street (WOW) and MetaStock for Windows (MSWIN) will cost you anywhere from $150 to $300 depending on where and when you buy them. The advantages of these packages are the ability to back test your systems and more flexibility and power when you change and create indicators. MSWIN is better for building Indicators and WOW is better testing and back testing systems.. Please remember that this represents my own opinion and others may disagree... Many of the things you read about on these Boards you can do with TC2000. You can draw trendlines (although they are not as nice), use Moving Average Xovers, and scan based on custom scans that you can create. It id without a doubt the best low cost charting software package on the market. The next level up would be WOW, WSA, and MSWIN. I have left out a few because I only want to talk about the ones I have personal experience with. Once you have a good feel for TC2000 you can deside if you want to move to the next level of software. I would put Advanced GET on another level. As you noted, the price is very high but the quality and power make it well worth it. When you have TC2000 mastered you might want to jump right into GET.. That's OK and might be a good move but my advise would be to make sure you have TC2000 mastered before you jump. Read all the posts on the Boards and see if they start making sense to you. Play with TC2000 and try picking out winners. USE RICHARD"S SCAN, it's THE BEST one I've seen and a great starting point when looking for good buys... Once you run the scan start putting MA's on the charts and look for crossovers. I like the 5-13-40 but you may decide that you like others better. NO PROBLEM, make it YOUR system... Write down your picks or better yet, enter them in the CONTEST. DON'T put real money down until you've tested your system and have a good idea how it works. Post your candidates and your system so one of us can run it through WOW... Take advantages of us, that's what we're here for..... Let me know how you're making out and if I can help......Good luck Jim!!!! Dave E.
Is it worth it???
Stock Picking can become a labor intensive task but it is well worth the effort. I am not just talking about the money you can make either!!!!! What other profession can offer you the chance to work anywhere in the world you wish???? All you will ever need is a computer and a phone line to do your work. What other profession can offer you a new challange everyday like the Market can???? What other profession can give you the opportunity to meet as many good, knowadgable, kind people as you do on the TA Boards!!! When you add it all up, it is well worth the effort..... As you pointed out in your post, one of the big challanges is to decide which indicators and tools you want as your primary focus and which ones you look at for additional input. At any point in time you can find indicators that are in conflict. If you waited for ALL of them to say buy, you would NEVER buy... YOU must decide which ones are the most reliable and suite YOUR system of buying and selling... Once you do that you will be on your way to profits....... Dave E.
Where do you make the Money????
I would like to follow up on what Art posted.... The real money in the Market is made on the SELLING, not the buying!!! I am assuming that you are only looking at and buying GOOD stocks when I say this... When you are buying high RS stocks you have to be ready to see them drop quickly. I remember doing a write up on QDEK where I pointed out that QDEK rose for about 6 months and gave most of the gain back in two months... I'm not sure of the numbers but they were quite large, and yes QDEK came back... My point is you have to be quick to cut your losers and ride your winners. Your buy and sell time periods have to match your personality and you MUST FOLLOW YOUR SYSTEM!!!!! I might sell a stock sooner then you and both of us might make money. Neither of us are wrong, just different. Many times I will use a 5 - 13 EMA Crossover to exit while you might add a 40 EMA to it to keep yourself in the stock longer... NO PROBLEM, as long as that's what you want to do and you're making money doing it.. The only strategy I really differ with is one that will keep you in a loser beyond 10%. I can see maybe staying a little beyond 10% in some cases but not many and not much beyond 10%. Of course that s another topic so I'll leave it alone for now. The Market is like anything else that makes money. The whole objective is to have your money in something that will go up in price. I do not want to sit in a stock that is going down in price and losing value (price) when I could be in a stock that is going up in price and gaining value (price). As you can see, I view Value as nothing more then PRICE. The only value a stock has is the price you can get for it!!! When I buy ABC stock I buy it because I THINK it will go up in price in the short term. Once it does I want to sell it and buy another stock I THINK will go up in Price. If it does something (goes down in price) to tell me that it MIGHT NOT go up in price I want to sell it and move on to another stock. That in a nut shell is how to play the Market. The time periods and criteria for buying and selling are your own, the objective is to make money. Any system that does not make money is a bad system! Any system that does make money is a good system!... Dave E. |
