Jerome, a couple comments.
First with respect to SUNE, it has been one of my favorite stocks to watch for several years now. I no longer own the stock, but I watch it carefully. IMO, it has been rarely priced for what it should be worth. That goes for the high side as well as the low side. Unfortunately, when I did invest long in the stock, it took me out on the downside, and I lost more money than I like to admit. SUNE has disappointed in their earnings reports many times in the past. Right now, I think they are running up because of their position in the solar field. Maybe that will be as big in the future as some people think, but who knows for sure. IMO, solar couldn't exist in today's energy market without huge subsidies. The German and Spanish Goverments have really felt the sting.
Secondly, I am not so sure about the following.
<<The second half of this year looks good for a lot of the tech stocks mentioned on this board. After all we can't stay in the gutter as a permanent residence.>>
As you know, we have had a long run to the upside over the past 3 to 4 years based on the Fed stimulus. That stimulus to the financials and banks has spilled over to the semis to a very large degree. This has caused the SOX to be up on the order of 150+ percent from the bottom in 2008. If you look at the earnings, both actual, and estimates, actuals have been trending down from 2010/11 to a much lower estimated number for 2013. However, from the data I posted earlier on this thread several times, 2014 estimated earnings are predicted to be 38 percent higher than 2013. That is great news, but number 1, IMO, most if not all of that has been priced into the stock prices already, and number 2, who says that 38 percent is really going to come to pass? IMO, more delay into the future for earnings will happen, and the 38 percent number will recede appreciably. However, another caveat, as long as the Fed continues the QE without abatement, stock prices will go higher.
JMO, FWIW, Don
By the way, you ought to post more often on this thread. Always glad to have your input. |
