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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: IndependentValue who wrote (52108)8/13/2013 11:59:29 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris  Read Replies (1) of 78748
 
Returning to our past discussion about WDC and connecting it to what you wrote:

You say
"a commoditised industry with a positive growth outlook"
And you say

Consistent 10 year track record, with revenue CAGR of 20%, net income CAGR of 30%, and FCF CAGR of 49% over this period
And I say that $64M question is whether you are right about positive growth outlook and whether the last 10 years is repeatable in any shape or form.

Clearly the market doubts (even with the 80% runup in last 12 months).

So really the rearview mirror does not help much when you analyze a tech company that might be on an edge of transition that might make it largely irrelevant. And though I appreciate the work you put into your analysis, I wonder if there was a good ROI on that work. IMHO, not. :)

Note that I hold a significant position in WDC. So don't call me a bear. :) I only think that anyone who would recommend this stock as a buy has to answer the questions about the future first. And IMHO that's largely impossible without a crystal ball. :)

And that's the reason my position in WDC is largish, but not huge.
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