RE: Steve Wiz's turnaround; factoring in Clik
Sheila and all,
I was more surprised by Steve Wiz's comments than
in love with them, though as a long I can of course
see where you're coming from. What you may not know,
because you're relatively new to the thread, is that
Steve has been an Iomega bear--or at least has been
an issuer of warnings and cautions--for some time,
so this is a really big turnaround for him, as I
see it. Thus his positive comments are all the
more remarkable than they seem at face value.
Welcome aboard, Steve.
There's been a little discussion lately about when
to start figuring Clik into one's investment calculations,
with some like Sheila doing so now and others saying
that it's valueless vapor until it ships and produces
solid revenue. I'd like to cast a vote for Sheila's
side here. Six months ago or thereabouts, I was on
the other side, thinking that n.hand just wasn't yet
far enough along to start counting on it, and this
was reinforced by the really anemic display of n.hand
at the Iomega booth at PC Expo last June. Now, though,
all the signs point toward a rollout for this product
in another six months or so, and a very successful one
at that, with a lot of upside potential. There are going
to be many speculators out there who will buy on the
promise. So, if you wait until Iomega actually shows
you the money, you'll have lost a lot of the run-up
attributable to Clik. Maybe the train hasn't left
the station yet, but remember that it certainly will
before all the results are in on this new product.
Unless you're extremely averse to risk-taking--in which
case, why are you reading this thread?--you'll want to
do for Clik the equivalent of what some of us were lucky
enough to do with the Zip, namely, to get in at a
post-split price under a dollar a share. Whether
the moment is now, or sometime in the spring, or
sometime mid-1998, is of course the question of
the hour, but it's clear that, if Clik does indeed
succeed, then the _best_ moment will be before the
Clik revenues start showing up.
Cheers, Tom (long IOM) |
