Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.28

-1.0%

Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: Sam who wrote (61123)	8/17/2013 10:34:50 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95526

Sam, I look at every stock in which I might invest as an opportunity to make money. There are many metrics by which we as investors can value a stock. Me personally I tend to look at valuations from a long term standpoint first when considering the present valuation of a stock. This can be done both fundamentally and from a technical standpoint. Now I realize that the fundamental picture for MU has changed dramatically for those who are bullish based on the acquisition of Elpida. Let me say one thing about that Sam and I am not being bearish; Elpida went bankrupt. I love Micron the company because it employs many of my best friends. Some are retired now but many still work there. But every stock investment should have expectations for profits based on a risk to reward that allows the investor to separate oneself from the ownership of the stock at a profit or at worst with a minimal loss. None of us should be marrying stocks at this point in our investment lives. Back to MU. Lets look at some fundamental valuations first because I think you might pay more attention to them than me. investing.money.msn.com finance.yahoo.com Book value on MU is just a hair over $7 a share right now. The stock sells for twice that as of Friday's close. Even SNDK which is wildly profitable does not sell for twice book value. MU has always struggled to be a profitable company. It's true in the best of times it has been extremely profitable and it may be again but there are no guarantees. Okay so hopefully we have arrived at the point where it is possible to say MU is not undervalued. Can the stock rise to even higher prices as the company becomes profitable again? Of course it can but the long term monthly chart shown below will clearly show that MU is already overbought. Check the RSI and the %B. Where you sell it Sam is entirely up to you but I can tell you that since I have no position in the stock whatsoever that I am completely ambivalent in my assessment of the potential for MU from here. I hope that MU does go much higher from here for you Sam but no one ever got hurt taking a profit. RtS

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