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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 316.33+1.3%Dec 10 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (61174)8/22/2013 9:44:57 AM
From: robert b furman1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Kirk ©

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Hi Kirk and Don,

Seems to me taking less of the Doctors medicine is always a sign of getting healthier.

There is a lot of fear mongering going on about a very important and healthy achievement here.
If I recall correctly QE 1 and @ ( I think) resulted in a boost in the price of commodities - almost entirely.

The fed is all about healthy banks.The feds actions are intended to boost bank capital and strength.

It now seems JPM and the big banks were all on the same page about commodities,as QE taper is being talked about ,the banks are getting fined for mainpulating metals and oil commodities - surprise surprise oh please just slap my hand - this is normal business.

QE tapering will put a lid on commodities.Now that capex has been boosted ie Glencore buying Xstrata excess capacity result in lower commodity prices for a looong time.

This is the stuff of margin expansion for the industrial sector.

As for semis - smartphones and laptop seem to be growing 46-51 % and PC declining 5-11%.

That's still the best combined growth we've seen in this sector for years.

There are a LOT of chips being made out there globally.

There has also been substantial consolidation amongst the key players - mostly in the equipment sector.Dell and HP still seem to be struggling with the PC decline and no real smartphone/tablet winners.

As rates go up from what will be generational lows for our investment lives - I believe the financial sector and technology sectors are poised for high correlation growth.

It is time for rotation from precious metals and materials to banking and tech.

Food growers will see commodities decline (beans are no longer in the teens) food makers may well benefit from this.

I'm thinking the economic downturn will be greatly overblown and conservative sectors have already had there prices topped out and will now go sideways.

Just my thoughts and time will tell.

Thanks to both of you for your solid posts!

Bob
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