Steve,
I think long on AMAT and short on LRCX still is a good spread.
LRCX is way behind AMAT in cluster tools and automation, and doesn't seem to be close to implementing a catch-up program. I am long on AMAT and have puts on LRCX. I've opened and closed this hedge three times in the past year with much success.
I think long on WCOM and short on T should a good hedge, but it hasn't been over the past couple of months -- I closed out my positions with a small loss a month ago. But I'm looking for a good time to get back in. I bought WCOM, but haven't shorted T yet. It is hard for me to believe that T can keep market share against WCOM and the CLECs.
I agree that the Internet will take time and revenue from something, but I don't think it is clear yet what that will be. Certainly Dialog (Knight-Ridder), but that is not much of a pure play. I read somewhere that K-R will split Dialog off -- if it does, in a public company, that would be a good short. As for newspapers, the Internet might even increase revenue for those who do a good job with electronic editions, such as the WSJ and NYT, and, who knows, even the Washington Post. |
