"You cannot create value out of thin air." I agree, and at the risk of sounding like this season's scrooge, I wouldn't view a financial collapse as a catastrophe either.
During a financial collapse, nothing real disappears. Planes still fly. Factories remain standing. Real estate is still there. Instead the various paper that represent claims on these things is appropriately revalued.
I like to think of it a man whose told he won the lottery one week, so that he and everyone else thinks he has millions in the bank. He takes out loans he otherwise wouldn't take. Buy a Rolls Royce, minks for the wife, etc. Starts a new business and hires lots of employees.
Next week he is told the truth: he hasn't won anything. Suddenly, he can't pay the loans. He goes bankrupt, and his lenders take a hit as well. The employees are fired. Because he spent his money on a Rolls, he has none for bread.
Understandably, he views the first week as one of the best timesin his life and the second as catastrophe. Of course, it was the first week that caused the problem, as a distorted view of reality led to a misallocation of resources.
For obvious politacal reasons, gov't is in the business of fostering such distorted views of reality. And Asia is just now entering the second week. Sooner or later, we will too. |
