Greg, we're pretty much in the same ballpark. I see 3-12 points on this one from here. I'd feel better about it if I could get some anecdotal reports about sales in the US, Japan, and Europe. I love the fact that the clone competition has been leveled and the fact that it is the biggest sales quarter of the year. Plus, expenses could be lower than last quarter.
Part of the negative commentary about Apple's last quarterly results were that sales were down 30% from last year. Then there was the difference in that Amelio showed a profit last Oct. and Apple didn't this time. In January, I wonder what the response would be if Apple's revenue is down 10-30%, yet they show a profit vs last year's $120 million loss. To me, that says, yes, the market isn't what it once was, but the company is a more viable business than it was a year ago. If the street can get used to the fact that Apple can make a little money while working on the next best thing, that could mean some interest in AAPL.
The December, 1997 quarter is the last one where Apple did over two billion in revenue. I hope that a profit this time will lead to a corresponding reward. And then we've got much easier quarter-on-quarter comparisons for the remainder of the year.
Every little thing helps with this one,
Marc |
