Andrew,
I would also like to direct this to Jerome and Mathon as well.
First, thanks for the lively discussion. I have been following this stock for some time now, but continued to be perplexed in how to evaluate it. Your intelligent discussions are very helpful.
Andrew, I agree that QWEST is in the right business. There is no doubt that dramatically more bandwidth will be needed in the future. While I am exited about the company, I can't evaluate it as I would most high-tech companies since it has no earnings or past performance history.
I appreciate your market cap analysis, but I am not sure QWEST compares well with MCIC or T, since QWEST is primarily in the wholesale market. Dark fiber, in particular, is a low margin business. It is much more profitable to sell a finished service, ie sell at retail like T or MCIC. Selling at wholesale, ie dark fiber to the retailers (T and MCIC) will not produce the same margins.
So again, even though I am excited about this companies prospects, I haven't been able to determine what a good entry point would be. I have been burned before buying great companies at over-valued prices -- not to say that is necessarily the case here, but at this point I would be buying stictly on a gut feel, rather than legitimate analysis.
Thanks for the discussions, keep them coming.
Regards |
