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Politics : Politics of Energy

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To: koan who wrote (43011)	9/8/2013 3:17:13 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) of 86356

Hi koan; Re: "The arctic ice pack melted and 1.5 standard deviations below the mean!" (a) The chance of being above 1.5 standard deviations below the mean is 93.32%. I got this number from the table at wikipedia: en.wikipedia.org So we already expect that the ice will be below 1.5 standard deviations below the mean around 6.68% of the time. That is, around 1 of 16 years. My suspicion is that you don't know enough about statistics to realize that 1.5 standard deviations is not very much. Scientists try to get at least 3 standard deviations before they accept evidence that something is definitely different. Three standard deviations happens due to chance about 0.13% of the chance (also from the above table, see the entry at the bottom left which is 0.9987, so the chance of being above that number would be 1-0.9987 = 0.0013 = 0.013% ) . So 1.5 standard deviations is a deviation but not a significant one. (b) I'm not sure what you mean by "arctic ice pack melted". Certainly the entire ice pack has not melted this year or at all recently. On the other hand, the edges of the arctic ice pack melt every summer so why are you bringing it up? As I've said repeatedly, I don't doubt the climate has warmed in the last century. In fact, it's been warming for two centuries, the last bottom was around 1800. That was when Napoleon lost most of his army on the mid winter march from Moscow. There was a time when the river Thames froze so solid that street fairs were held on the ice. The climate warmed and they quit having the fairs in the early 19th century. This was a long time before CO2. These were called the "Thames Frost Fairs" and there's an interesting wikipedia article about it: en.wikipedia.org The Frost Fairs ended in the 19th century when the climate warmed and the Thames quit freezing. This was done before modern industry rose the amount of CO2 in the air. The climate scientists still do not have any explanation for this temperature change. They postulate that it had to do with the sun but this is just a guess. Certainly they cannot tell us that the sun will keep us warm for the next 100 years. This is why they really don't know what temperatures we'll have 100 years from now. The climate scientists can't tell you where the earth's climate is going because they don't know the "why" that explains where the earth's climate has been. They are guessing. Someday they'll figure it out and then they'll make predictions that work. And like I've said before, we can't trust their assurances about their science because they've recently been very wrong about exactly those assurances. Nor have they yet learned their lesson. They are still too arrogant to know when they don't know. What's going on is that the climate is changing now and people who want to hurt industry and to "help" the 3rd world are using this fact as a wedge to get what they want. When temperatures dropped from around 1940 to around 1970 they used the temperature drop to justify the exact same policies. That is, they told us that the temperature drop was due to modern man's effect on the environment and that we had to stop it or we would all die. -- Carl

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