Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

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To: Lazarus who wrote (54342)	9/10/2013 11:34:10 AM
From: Joseph Silent	Read Replies (1) of 222923

I am quite aware of this ...... and there is no real disagreement on why this methodology or that ....... the simple issue became: is randomness involved or not? The answer is yes. I started by saying there are many kinds of randomness. If the markets are not deterministic (which is the case if you cannot predict them with probability 1, or in other words, without error) then they are random. We may have a model, but the model exhibits prediction error because of both model error (e.g., assumptions) and randomness. How much error is another matter and in my line of work ---- the model-builder, and ---- the model-tester have to be two different people, to exclude testing bias. I think you can see why you want the people who market clear spring water to your family should (preferably) not be the same people who test the water and tell your family it's good water. I used to know a Prof. of Physics from MIT who built a model based on physics. He is long retired and his model looked very good, had all the physics reasoning, but had limited success.

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