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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (52362)	9/12/2013 10:26:14 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) of 78763

Re AMBC - I am not sure any more if AMBC is as good as I thought it woulf be. For example, due to the "fresh start accouting" they have written up the value of their assets by more than 1B$. Some of this is due to expected recoveries, so my take is that some lawsuit wins are already build in. The filings are some of the most convoluted mess that I have seen so far. I think it is more or less a black box, or one could regard it at a very long dated call option on recoveries. The balance sheet is ~25B$ and AMBC market cap is <0.9B$, sonif something goes in AMBC's favor, the impact could be huge. Due to the fact, that AMBC has huge NOL and no real ongoing business, a merger with another company is very likely at some point.

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