Hello 2mar$, we must be amused by whatever the Fed telegraph, and whatever Goldman tells us, same or otherwise.
So far we have had a decade of of dollar down and everything else doing a round trip to nominal-nowhere
Perhaps we shall now experience a decade of ...
Taper on/off
Interest rate rise/fall
Economy down /up
Dollar up/down
Stocks down/up
Bonds down/up
Everything else down/up
Until all that is worthwhile get ground down to nothing and civilization gets milled to phuck-all
The overarching macro protocol remains fiat money inflation, to save the empire well past its best-use-by date, and
The monetary imperative shall remain print-print-print until there is nothing to print for
In the mean nasty time, stretching perhaps a decade, maybe even two, Gold ...? Supposedly down if dollar up (up against what?) and should be down if economy down (the proverbial nonsense re jewelry demand)
I recommend that we make the needed preparations for The End.
But keep in mind that diversification across all important asset classes shall result in the market return, namely zero;
Concentration on any conviction involves unspeakable terror unless one is of the true faith and is genuinely convinced.
Win or lose during the better part of the journey, at the sorry destination awaits the darkest interregnum.
The market's grinding should prove pulverizing, and I fear most shall fall and fail to rise again, and only a few may rise.
As a game certainly challenging, and as a book, very interesting.
A fund i am advisor on just received an offer from a sovereign fund to take a building off of our hand at 2.36X our purchase cost, allowing the investors a 47% irr after carry. The building when acquired was the largest ever site aggregation deal in hong kong involving the engagement of 260 apartments and numerous ground-level shops. The sovereign offer was 5% away from our asking price. I expect the offer to be improved by a mere 5% now that Ben-helicopter-burnandkaput has wisely decided to continue w/ his wastrelism. Thanks uncle Ben.
Cheers, j |
