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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Trading Cabana
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To: deeno who wrote (6216)9/19/2013 1:54:04 PM
From: N. Dixon  Read Replies (1) of 6370
 
Do you think he'll bring back his friend Assssensio as well?

If so instead of sending his minions to attack me on REFR. Dispute the facts, Bill. Here was my response to your age old "40 years and what's happening?"

Shorts Arguments debunked

1) S-Class not available in US. - Mercedes has stated in several interviews, articles that it's focus for the S-Class is NOT the U.S. market.. They focus on a Global market approach and are gearing their marketing, designs and focus on countries with a growing luxury car market. China purchased 50% of the S-Class vehicles EVEN WITH levies that put the final price at almost $500,000. (Report on this can be found in earlier posts)

2) No earnings in the 40 year history. True. But since the technology has only been in the commercial market to any large extent it is deceiving to monitor earnings during the development of the technology and the work done worldwide to get to today's growing income due to the emergence of SPD panoramic roofs in the auto industry. Fee income growth in the last 6 months is 31% higher than the first 6 months of 2012 with expenses only going up 13%.

3) Insiders are making money and "fooling" investors. Look at insider investment in the company. They are rewarded with shares and also buy directly in the market. They have put more at risk then the average investor.

4) Stock will be worthless in ?????? they've been predicting this since the 1990s. Stock price relative to other stocks without earnings is fair value. The market bubble burst in 2008 and companies went under or they maintained and grew. REFR is one of the latter.

Facts:

Company went public in 1986.
Spent $90MM to develop Suspended Particle Device - have 350 patents
Went into partnership with large companies to produce SPD film to be sold to licensees to pay royalties.
The success of SPD technology hinged on the licensees. REFR was instrumental in helping these licensees perfect the film and continue to develop new innovations for which they will patent.
The company burn rate of 5MM will go down as the income flow goes up. Fee income from large scale product introduction only started in the last 3 years with Isoclima and Hitachi producing large volumes of SPD film to sell to the auto and aerospace industry for their licensed products. REFR takes the royalty off of the product sold. This is so as the price of the film goes down, royalty stream goes up with the introduction of new innovative products such as the Magic Sky Control Roof for the S-Class.
As a long time shareholder you should already be aware that 2014 will see a significant increase in royalty fees. Which quarter will they go into the black? Only the insiders can speculate on that. But if you go to the website and listen to the Aug. conference call and the September Gateway Conference, you might finally grasp the enormity of what is taking place.
The company doesn't manufacture products. They stated at the Sept. Gateway Conference that their expenses would be going DOWN as product revenues arrive. There are only 22 MM shares in the float. Insiders hold 12.1 percent of the stock. They have reiterated several times that there goal is not to expand but to continue spending money on new technology development (1/2 of the yearly expenses go to that.) and the rest will be a growing cash flow.
So after earnings exceed $.23 per share, the company will be in a position to pay dividends. The insiders have held a large amount of stock through high & low markets. They stand to benefit the most as we do from dividends.

Bob Saxe has already seen his dream come true
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