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Gold/Mining/Energy : American Eco (ECGOF, ECX on Toronto exchange)
ECX 1.850+5.7%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST
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To: Charles A. King who wrote (1221)12/9/1997 8:54:00 AM
From: david james  Read Replies (1) of 2841
 
Interesting to see that earnings surprises are #1 and estimate revisions are #3. It shows that it just doesn't pay to be completely straight about what you think you can earn. We've now had a week with that Research Capital estimate in First Call and it hasn't had much negative effect, so maybe now we can expect to see some positive effects when they beat estimates. It may actually be a decent strategy to start with relatively low estimates while the stock is rather low and upgrade throughout the year.

I think that its also interesting to note that although Research Capital has a 1998 target estimate of 99 cents, they have a 1998 target price of $28 Canadian - (about $19.50 U.S) or about an 80% increase from here - since they argue the increase in taxes is offsetting their true growth. Since I think they can get closer to $1.50 in 1998 based primarly on the jump in earnings from MM Industra, I suspect we will see Research Capital's target increase throughout the year.

I talked to Cindy last night and she was saying the Mike McGinnis' official target for 1998 was $1.35 to $1.50. I suspect that $1.50 is not in any question, but it paves the way for a few surprises this year.

David
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