I suspect that soon we are about to see that many have underestimated the downside coming.
I'm aware that the script for many has been I'm buying on the dip.
Or once the budget and default issues are addressed that ms spx will rally. Unfortunately I don't think many understand when it comes to investing the USA is not an island.
The delays and rhetoric are giving those who would like to own more of the USA an opportunity to do so.
One only has to take a drive down the strip in LV and look at the paperwork to see who owns what and who used to own something that doesn't anymore. So the names on the buildings are the same but ownership and % of ownership for many has changed.
So I got a downside of the bell curve to 35-40 avg. It's at 64. I put that up a while ago and had to listen to those who didn't understand it. Soon they will just as those who didn't understand it on the POG board. It's not about understanding, Somethings take YEARS to understand. Somethings can be considered for YEARS and still not understood. When someone shows up that understands a bell curve and it's supporting details then it might be wise to consider and listen. Bell curve avg is going to 35-40. To get there spx will have to go to Zman's initial numbers down and then lower over TIME.
That means there many sectors have to sell off and roll left from a 80 to hmmm 35 or lower. It's an avg. There are some 40 sectors. That means the MAJORITY of them will reflect and avg of 35-40. Time frame..2014-2015..
Whereas the 30 week/10 week and near term momentums have rolled and the bp spx is suggesting 50/40 from the 75 bp spx area. That nuance is where the soon to be selling can be expected. Sectors such as savings in the 80 area, banks, gaming, leisure, restaurants, wall street are vulnerable to the left. They are but a few of the many that will do so.
So as I finish this day HAPPIER than an ice creme addict alone at BEN AND JERRY'S with a spoon because ZMAN has his own site and how fortunate all of us who visit and post are.
I've said it privately, I've said it publicly. Zman69 is good. VERY GOOD.
He uses many a tool most may not understand or agree. Doesn't bother me. All I care about is, does he hit his numbers and as suggested re time. His documented call from Jan 2013 says it all. SPOT ON. KUDOS
Does he think and consider details beyond a chart, a wave etc to get to those numbers. YUP. .
Maybe to the chagrin of those who might not agree with him.
And that my fellow posters here is what I try to avoid.
I don't care what language, what methodology.what country, what nationality.
I only care if one is GOOD. Zman is VERY GOOD.
Fintas |
