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Strategies & Market Trends : Zman Market Timing
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From: Fintas10/16/2013 7:39:44 AM
2 Recommendations

Recommended By
toccodolce
zman69

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Few years ago, there was some negative news that took the market down 500 points in minutes. Got a call while standing in a bank. Stopped what I was doing, stepped outside and saw the sky was still blue.

So I told my friend, not to worry the sky's still blue and the sell off means nada and the upside will continue. IT did way back then. Why the data supported the continuation of the UP.

Well I got another call recently while sitting in the Venetian casino in Las Vegas in the St Marc area at Postrios.

My friend said, their saying spx is going to 1800 before year end to which I looked up and saw a blue sky and paused and said to my friend.

The sky here is PAINTED BLUE. it's as fake as fake can be to give the illusion of all is well.

So too are many pundits and other showing up on cable and other to present things are fine. Buy any dip..for we are going higher.

The problem is many have an agenda that requires they put on a happy face.

And while many are presenting the positive view behind closed doors they are SELLING. HOW CAN I SAY THAT? HOW DO I KNOW?

If that were not accurate the NYSE would be making NEW HIGHS and not showing DISTRIBUTION in the NYSE HI LOW chart or DOWN from 90 to the low 60's. A pattern and supportive data that supports any rally up from the 60 is going to fail. Not just fail but make it's way to the 50/30/20. As that happens more and more NYSE components that were making new highs will reflect LOWER prices over time. Want just one ex. CAT. Now how many were pushing CAT at it's high. And where is it now?

The same can be seen for the SPX.

So what's it mean on this day?

I'm not concerned re any near term run in the spx. I'm concerned with what ms spx, nyse and the core I hold will look at 6/12/18 months from now.

Dow, Spx, Nasd will all be lower and to numbers I have presented.

Often I spend the majority of my time addressing those who bash a stock and index. I did alot of that back in late 2009-2010 as so many were looking for a return under spx 950 to 850 etc. Fact, they were WRONG. Very wrong!

Here and now so many pumping SPX from the 1620. WHY?

I spend my time listening or reading a bull saying the spx is going up up up to 1800 and beyond. Dow is going to 16k...any day now ( hmm for the past 4 years.. yup ANY DAY NOW. Just pray you are not in EBB TIDE).

But the facts are the facts.

SPX is up from 1266 last June 2012. Spx is up from 1345 since last Oct/Nov ish 2012/ Up from 1405 ish Jan 2013. These numbers are FACTS and not opinion.

USA debt is in the Trillions and that's a fact.

C just missed and that's a fact.

If you are going to be long, try to not be stupid. To answer the question WHY the pumping. Someone wants to sell you their inventory that they purchased lower. As one who holds core off lows, I'm one of them.

Lot of longs were stupid with Wcom. Fact and not opinion

Lot of longs were stupid back in late 2007. Fact and not opinion.

If you are going to be LONG.. Make sure you don't get caught being stupid. No one will give you back your money. They will tell you though not to worry for it's just a pullback and will come back. IF you buy the right equity it will. If you don't. ugh.

If you buy the spx yes it's going to highs over time. But let's not forget it took near 4 years to get back to even from that high in 2007. As Zman has pointed out. there were MANY % pullbacks as that happened. Zman is 100% correct. There were MANY % dips.

Bottom line. % up possibility near term is ?

% down possibility is ?

I help those who are math challenged.

1/2/3% Up and 8/10/15/20% down.

HMMM where's the best reward/risk? HINT DOWN near term and near term for me is thru 2014 not today or tomorrow or next week.

I'm no trader but if I was I'd be listening closely to ZMAN69.

He sees the near term and the long term. And does it without the blind pumping crap.

Not an opinion but fact.

Fintas
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