cs:
VVUS disclosed that an estimated 108,000 Qsymia prescriptions were dispensed in Q3. Carrying forward last quarter's ASP of $68/Rx, Q3 Qsymia revenues should be around $7-$7.5M, a $1.5-$2M sequential increase. This is below our $10M and consensus of $12M.
? IMS data has shown an uptick this quarter, though we have thought some of this might be artifact due to the retail roll-out. Indeed, that would seem to be the case. Whereas IMS had been understating scripts in prior periods due to the limited distribution channels, the 120K or so IMS reports for Q3 TRx is now an overestimation. Further, IMS data is showing a flattening of TRx since August, which we do think is an actual trend; we would look for color on this and monthly Rx data on the Q3 call.
? Our concern over the past few weeks has been that Q3 might prove to be another challenging quarter, setting up for a difficult near-term catalyst, as seems to be the case. Our thought has been that management would have a more comprehensive 360/strategic review following the successful proxy contest this summer. But with Tony Zook's unexpected departure, this has been pushed out. Commentary on the Q3 call on partnership progress and cost cutting may be needed to offset what looks to be a weak print.
? We think a sale of the company is not in the cards, but signing a partner may be. Clearly the 150 reps is not enough and greater scale is needed. If a partnership is signed, the near-term reaction likely would take the stock higher. Our concern continues to be that any deal, short of a sale, will require relinquishing meaningful economics. |
