*** Measuring the shutdown’s impact in Virginia: By now, you know that the 16-day government shutdown took a toll on the Republican Party -- in the polls and with a now-expanded 2014 House map (see below). But here’s one more negative result the shutdown has had on the GOP: It has hurt Republican Ken Cuccinelli’s chances of winning next month’s gubernatorial contest in Virginia. According to a new NBC4/NBC News/Marist poll, Democrat Terry McAuliffe holds an eight-point lead over Cuccinelli among likely voters, 46%-38%, up from McAuliffe’s five-point edge (43%-38%) last month before the shutdown. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis gets 9%. And when the race is reduced to just two candidates, McAuliffe’s lead jumps to nine points, 52%-43%. But here’s the role the shutdown has played in government-worker-heavy Virginia: 39% of residents say they or a family member were impacted by the shutdown. And by a 54%-29% margin, voters blamed the shutdown on congressional Republicans instead of President Obama. What’s more, the GOP’s fav/unfav in the state is dismal 32%-62% among voters (and 23%-71% among independents), versus the Dem Party’s 45%-50% (and 39%-56% among indies). “Just when Cuccinelli needed to start closing the gap against McAuliffe, the government shutdown became a huge roadblock,” says Marist’s Lee Miringoff.
*** Virginia has become a microcosm of the GOP’s woes: Of course, Cuccinelli came into this contest with his own issues (example: he trails McAuliffe by 20 points among female voters). Bob McDonnell’s (R) ethics woes didn’t help the party over the summer (though McDonnell’s approval rating among voters is a very healthy 55%). And Cuccinelli and the GOP are being outspent in the race by a 2-to-1 margin. But if Cuccinelli ends up losing the Nov. 5 gubernatorial race, many will point to the shutdown being the final nail in his coffin. Yet there’s a larger political point to make about Virginia: It has become a microcosm of the GOP’s woes. The party nominated the more conservative candidate over potentially a moderate one (due to the state’s nominating convention instead of a primary). And it has a damaged brand in this key swing state (let us repeat, the GOP’s fav/unfav is 32%-62%). If the party can’t win this state in 2016, it is VERY difficult to get to 270 electoral votes. Oh, and guess who is campaigning for McAuliffe tomorrow in Virginia -- Hillary Clinton. |
