| | | "if management consists of slick presenters who try to oversell (fool?) investors about the true state of the company - then does that mean anything to you? Or do you just have to expect that management is going to put overly optimistic spin? That they have to say it like they mean it - even if they don't"
Management will almost always have a rosier outlook than they should, it's natural. They are leading their organization, and no one gets to that level with the attitude "We're #6, and heading next year to become #8!". It doesn't mean they know something bad is coming and they are trying to mislead you, it is just a natural role for most CEOs to cheerlead for their organization and expect its plans (which they probably created) to be fruitful.
A CEO can't lead a company and also say "We have three major new product launches next year, they all look like crap to me!"
So I wouldn't interpret a slick upbeat presentation as necessarily intentionally misleading investors, it's natural. My point is that management's "positive spin" is better off ignored and you should focus on other sutff - numbers, financials, your understanding of the company's position in it's industry, etc. Plenty of times management will give very positive presentations, then two months later they'll announce negative news which craters the shares. Then they'll get that bad news behind them and begin making positive presentations again, this is just the way the presentation game works.
My point was just that the "feelings" I got from presentations weren't generally useful. Meeting with management can be useful because you can ask them your areas of concern and see their solutions, and also whether your concerns are even on their radar. But even that may have limited value. You have concerns, but the thing that moves the stock over the next 1-2 years may be something good/bad that never even occurred to you. |
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