Impact of Y2K on Software Vendors
I found some postings on the possible effect of Y2K on ERP and database vendors.
Discussion on Y2K effects took place several days ago, just before current mayor -29 % fallback of ORCL.
Any thoughts?
John
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exchange2000.com
To: Max Nigh (3736 )
From: Trader Dave Thursday, Dec 4 1997 6:41PM EST
Reply # of 3982
Oracle is not a y2k provider in the classic sense. You can not substitute a database engine for cobol code. Just like you can't substitute a filing cabinet to solve a poor typesetting problem. (Sorry about the weak analogy, but cobol code and database engines aren't relevant to each other either.)
However, Oracle and other application vendors like SAP, Baan and PSFT are benefiting from those organizations that want to replace their legacy enterprise applications running on mainframes with high end y2k compliant client server systems.
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If Oracle DOESN'T put up a fabulous application number this quarter, look out. My sense is that things are fine and that we should see a sigh of relief with good results and a good conference call.
TD
exchange2000.com
To: Trader Dave (3743 )
From: John Mansfield Friday, Dec 5 1997 2:34PM EST
Reply # of 3982
Dave,
Slow down will indeed occur. More and more, large c/s projects are cancelled because of Y2K. Replacement of mainframe systems by packaged solutions will increasingly only be an option for SME's.
Regards,
John
exchange2000.com
To: Michelle Harris (3760 )
From: John Mansfield Saturday, Dec 6 1997 2:50AM EST
Reply # of 3982
Michelle,
That is what I am seeing also. Keep a close eye the coming 3-6 months on firms planning to do C/S replacement of legcy systems; I expect more of these cancellations. There are simply not enough people to do both (fix Y2K in old systems; and also bring in place new C/S systems).
Regards,
John
IFMX - Investment Discussion
exchange2000.com
Syborg, ORCL is still the bell weather of database. For IFMX to move to the teen, the overall database market has to improve. I don't know how long this process will take. As many analysts have said it earlier, the focus for now is Y2K project not database.
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Overall tone for database company is very bearish. I won't be surprised to see ORCL in the high teen within couple months
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Good luck!
PSFT - 1997 Outlook (Q2 and Beyond)
exchange2000.com
Melissa/Paul/etc.,
The Oracle earnings press release was noticably lacking in details. It seems to me that they are embarassed by their performance and are hesitant to reveal the details.
In prior quarters their press releases prominently stated performance figures by various criteria (revenue breakdown by database vs. applications, etc.)
YEAR 2000
"Although there is no way to know for sure, it's possible that the Year-2000 issue helped Oracle's sales to large enterprises in previous quarters, as those enterprises upgraded their applications as part of their Y2K plan. That could have a negative impact on apps sales in the middle of calendar 1998. On the other hand, mid-market companies may only now be formulating and implementing their Y2K plans."
Tom |
