Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion

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To: John Mansfield who wrote (8280)	12/9/1997 4:19:00 PM
From: Tom C	Read Replies (1) of 13949

Re: Any thoughts? I have a couple of thoughts, at least I think they are thoughts? I follow Oracle since I have shares in the company. It has been a long term core holding of mine. In the last 2 to 3 years, vertical applications have accounted for the lion share of Oracle's growth. This helps to drive the database license business as well as consulting. I am not sure if their current growth was slowed down by the flow of money towards fixing the y2k problem but I think it will further aggravate their slower growth problem. I know of two large organizations (one is a government organization) that have a policy of no money for new systems until the y2k problem is fixed. You might think that since Oracle offers packaged y2000 compliant applications that they are a likely beneficiary of the y2k problem and they have been, but as we get closer to the date, the replace option of the fix or replace equations gets less likely. These packaged applications take a long time to implement. The analysis phase alone might take six months to a year in a large organization. If you commit to using Oracle Apps, SAP or Baan, you are also committed to re-engineering your business with no guarantee of success. If you are not already actively working on the replacement by now then you had better be patching up your existing applications. If a were a CIO of a Fortune 500 company and my choices are to replace a large strategically important application or to fix it, at this point in time, I would fix the existing software. Re-engineering my company and its software at this point in time would be a big risk. Regards Tom ps: These are opinions that I hold today. This does not mean I will hold the same opinions tomorrow. Keep in mind that there might be a reason these opinions are free.

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