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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Justinfo who wrote (52652)	10/29/2013 4:54:49 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) of 78920

When people come to believe that JCP will go bk or have drastic restructuring. Media reports of why JCP won't make it. I won't use metrics -- they will have long since indicated JCP would be a buy for a reversion-to-mean assuming the company would recover from a normal bad year to two. I'm guessing at the point where the stock might be under $5...maybe under $2 -- somewhere where management comes to believe they'll all - each and every one of them - will be out of a job unless they can turn the thing around. My experience though in picking the bottom isn't that good here. I believed The Gap would go a lot lower than it did when they had their problems and "nobody" liked their large size, sluggish growth, quality of merchandise and/or out-of-synch styles. To my surprise, the company fortunes and stock turned around quite quickly with new management, and the stock never got as low as I believed it would. With JCP though, issues may be more difficult than what Gap faced. Or maybe JCP can resolve their problems pretty quickly too. To me, the stock still seems to indicate hope about that. At under $2/sh - if it ever gets there -- maybe most investors hope will have dissipated, and I might be interested.

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