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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (52494)11/8/2013 12:53:52 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris2 Recommendations

Recommended By
MCsweet
Spekulatius

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My top (>2.5%) positions in no particular order: GLW, MGDDY, JPM, MSFT, DRAGF, CF. In: CF - bought more. Out: CYOU - price drop, position reduced
Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~18%

New positions: COST, BAMXY, CFX, TDY
Positions increased: JPM, CF, MKL
Positions reduced: CYOU, TPCA, MOS
Positions eliminated:
Flip-flop:

Somewhat uneventful earnings season and less-than-a-month.

Most of my portfolio companies reported so so results or predicted worsening results in the future. Some were punished, but overall portfolio continues to trade pretty high. Market is assuming continued growth or at least outperformance in stocks. I continue to wonder if we gonna get blindsided when this belief changes.

I bought a bunch of expensive Buffettology not very value investing stocks. Initial, small positions in COST, CFX, TDY. CFX and TDY based on Brooklyn Investor blog. None of them are cheap.

I bought some BAMXY, which reported rather crappy results. Not very cheap.

Added to JPM, CF and MKL. Not very cheap either. JPM continues to languish in lawsuit and govt penalty mire. CF results are not great. MKL is OK, but nothing special.

CYOU expects a huge earnings drop due to marketing and game licensing expenditures. The biggest worry is that this is the way to transfer cash out to SOHU. Second biggest worry is that they don't know what they are doing and they gonna piss away the cash. I sold some and may sell more if stock holds or runs up.

TPCA - sold some on runup. Stock still trades below book. Results are so so, but a bit improving.

MOS - results are quite bad. The company is not cheap based on the current results, though these might be going to cyclical trough. So I might be selling at bad time and get whipsawed.

Overall, there's not much available to buy. Quite a few positions could be sold, but I don't have great ideas where to redeploy the money, so I continue to hold.
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