My point Clinton,
Is that I can't teach you TA or FA or anything to do with the stock market... all I can do is share what my observations have been... although they may come out fairly paternalistic, it may be because of our advancing ages.
What you want is exactitude... if there is such a word... and all I can give you is my observations and ad hoc and annecdotal evidence about the things I have learned.
To summarize: while I have over 200 indicators, many of my own developing, I have found my Barron's based indicators which give general (weekly) market direction PLUS indications of daily activity 4 days in advance are pretty good. As I have said before, the Barrons indicators probably work 80% of time for weekly and less than 70% of the time for daily activity. IT IS OUTRAGEOUS THAT I EVEN GET THAT LEVEL OF ACCURACY FROM SO SIMPLE A SET OF INDICATORS!!! Because in the broad scheme of things, most people haven't the foggiest what is going to happen tomorrow or a week from now and would probably do as good flipping a coin as trying to forecast market direction themselves. IN ADDITION, the only OTHER indicator worth a hoot to me is my VIX indicator "SET" which tell when we have reached a buy or sell point in the markets AND, based on extrapolation of the indicators on the chart, can give you a fairly good idea when those turn-around points will be.
In Table form:
Barron's Weekly ............. Tells whether week will be up or down - 80% effective
Barron's Daily................... Tells whether daily will be up/down and strength 70%
VIX "Majority" .................. Gives fairly good calls for short term turns in market
VIX "UNISON" ................. Calls intermediate peaks/bottoms for 5%+ moves
To summarize this week... I said Monday and Tuesday and Thursday would be down and Friday strongly down with Wednesday up and the week down based on Barrons. VIX has given a MAJORITY sell but not a 5%+ sell. So that is in line with the Barrons predictions.
I don't know how I can say it otherwise... but what I have said above fairly states the indicators I use now. And they work... but the caveat is: when they DON'T work, sometimes they are terribly off.
I need these indicators because I trade options where the reward is SO great that a few losses now and then are overwhelmed by the plusses...
(So if you are so smart, Bill, why ain't you rich???)
I have just developed these indicators over the past year and am still testing them before "betting the farm."
(Careful, Bill, he needs to know about money management...)
Regards,
Bill
PS If you have further questions - please, don't hesitate to ask... |
