Barron's article on DVN - Analyst's valuation $81.30/share
Feature | SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2013 The Cheapest U.S. Oil Play
Andy Ramer, chief of research at Fiduciary Management in Milwaukee, estimates Devon's breakup value at more than $80 a share, based in part on the new MLP. That deal values its midstream assets at $6.5 billion. Back this out of the company's $32.1 billion enterprise value–market value plus net debt—and the E&P business is valued at just 3.5 times its 2014 Ebitda. (Ebitda is earnings before income, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.) Typically, those assets would be valued at more like 5.5 times Ebitda. Says Ramer: "Devon's sound operationally, and busier than most people think it is. People are missing the transition into the oilier plays." Even using a discounted 4.5 times Ebitda to value the exploration and production business— Anadarko Petroleum (APC) and Noble Energy (NBL) trade at 6.2 and 10.5 times, respectively—and then adding back in the value of Devon's midstream MLP assets, Ramer comes up with a stock valuation of $81.30 a share for the company. The stock yields 1.5%.
EKS |