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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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LoneClone

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (181279)	11/11/2013 8:02:25 AM
From: Dennis Roth	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 206326

US Independent Refiners ALJ/ALDW – Underperformance Getting Overdone; Raising Rating/TP on ALJ 08 November 2013 sendspace.com (712.66KB) Bottom-line: With large misses to consensus estimates in 3Q (ALJ/ALDW), and no cash distribution from ALDW (along with the prospect of no payouts in 4Q13/1Q14), the shares have sold off by c11% over the past two days. Alon was impacted by tough 3Q macro conditions – a crude spike hurt secondary products, drove backwardation, there was oversupply in gasoline (partly due to lack of hurricanes, partly due to overproduction), RIN distortions depressed pipeline product rack prices, and maintenance at Big Spring. Given the collapse in Brent-LLS, we’re formally reflecting the $5/bbl LLS-Brent scenario which we laid out two weeks ago in our EBITDA and EPS. We’ve also marked to market for wide inland crude diffs in 4Q.

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