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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 375.93-1.8%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Horgad who wrote (103684)11/13/2013 4:51:18 PM
From: bart13  Read Replies (1) of 217769
 
It's flatter mostly due to much slower growth in SNAP (food stamps) or disability (only growing at 1.6% YoY as of most recent data, compared to almost 7% in late 2010), or actual contraction like in unemployment claims and of course in people falling off unemployment rolls due to eligibility loss.

Transfer payments were expanding at about 10% annually in late 2010, and are in the 3.5% area now, but that's still ~$110 billion more spent this year than in 2010.
On the revenue side since it's very much not just about expenditure issues, the Social Security tax rollback was put back in place this year and that brings in about 2% more revenue from almost everyone's salary & wages, and almost 4% when including the employer share.

Also keep in mind that the sequester has only had a minor effect since the cuts are spread over many years, It'll be a lot more noticeable in 2014 than this year, and Obamacare could also be quite costly and way above budget. The biggest issues remain accruals, primarily Medicare and the "no-bid" drug costs, and the continuing failure of Congress to address accruals.
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