Andrew: Your long COO post is something that's been bugging me for a long time, more from an investment standpoint than a technical one. In case nobody's noticed (LOL!) the semi equipment sector is horrendously cyclical. The cycles seem to be just a little longer than investors' memories. I wouldn't want to time it -- it could break upwards tomorrow -- but it could flounder for another year, easily, for a variety of reasons.
Most of the people who post on the individual boards, here and elsewhere, just seem to have no concept of this. When I sold my Cymer for the last time a few weeks ago, there were people telling me how stupid I was. This isn't to say the businesses aren't healthy -- they certainly are, and there will certainly be a good amount of even front-end business, DUV sales, and certainly testing and automation. But even at the current multiples, which seem so depressed compared to several months ago, a fair amount of growth has been factored in.
Bottom line: the semi equipment sector might go up tomorrow and might rocket in the next couple of months, but if you are going to invest intelligently, you must admit to the possibility of an additional retraction, and perhaps even a lengthy one. I have a feeling that if ASM is trading at 60 nine months or a year from now, the board will be full of posts about "when is this dog going to move" etc. That will be the time to buy. |
