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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends

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From: Fintas	11/20/2013 7:33:19 AM
	of 3209

TNX. I noticed another has wisely identified the TNX is going to give some heart burn. First I'm on record for a 3%-3.25%-3.5% for the ten year in the FUTURE. At this moment it's in the 2.7 ish area. I'll give some reasons why as I view it from a PNF perspective.. It's RSI is at .97. It had been .93 causing a set of O's down The pattern suggests the lean is UP and any short term delay to allow for a retest of .93 will fail. Thus the expectation would be 1.03/1.13/1.37 to a range of 1.87. Now if one just used 1 and plugged in 13%/37%/50% it's easy to see how the ten year moves to 3% and higher. Keep in mind that in SEPT we peaked closed to 30 on the TNX and 3%. The drop was due to Fed in action and that was due to politics. That was then. Now is now as many will soon begin to focus on FA. It stinks. This is a deal breaker for a bull market. It's coming and one should expect it. What will cause money to shift to chase the yield could be something as simple as. HMM DIS is too high, HD is too high, NFLX is too high, AMZN, GOOG.. So many that are not paying yield and need to retrace. So to the one who is focussing on the TNX ..COOL. It's great to be a bull. It's dumb to be a blind and deaf bull. FINTAS

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