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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends

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From: Fintas	12/1/2013 11:36:51 AM
	1 Recommendation of 3209

FOLLOW UP re DRYS: This will focus on the BDI. I notice the sage is doing the pump again with a recent post staing the BDI is exploding. NOT REALLY! I have to take a moment to identify that the sage went silent as BDI and Drys were in retracement. In fact the sage allowed another to put up a bash piece and negative commentary re drys on his site. I pondered. WHY? If one is going to support a position shouldn't they defend it or support it? More importantly why allow a basher with a clear agenda to bash and buy lower put up a trash piece? HMMMM Regardless: Let's look at the BDI. I'm on record for a much higher BDI to the 2400/2900/3400 in the not too distant future i.e 2014.. But EXPLODING? Those who use PNF and the 54 value box will quickly discern EXPLODING is not accurate. WHY? Because it's clear to see the areas of resistance above. I'd see it as it is. BDI pushed 2148, retraced to 1480 ish and has now turned back up to see if it can get beyond it's recent area of resistance.. Sort of what POG has been trying to do but failaing to do so. That means 2148 ish will be resistance and once that is resolved one should expect a run towards the 2900. The FA for BDI is better than that for POG so I am comfortable that BDI will take out the previous resistance to move towards the 2900. While POG is rallying but the bottom is yet to be known.. On an aside NOT all of the fleet held by Drys are benefited by a rise in BDI. So one should have a better understanding of the relationship of BDI to drys. It's NOT direct. Most of it is perception.. Understanding that helps one to be objective re how drys will benefit from BDI. Drys golden egg is ORIG. Understand ORIG to DRYS..Understand DRYS and charter rates versus spot rates and then one has a better fundamental view. Let me not confuse any. BDI turning up is a positive! But EXPLODING? NOPE Exploding would be BDI at 3600 not 1800 ish. Regardless my work re DRYS considers FA along with TA and I'm confident re upside of drys as I recently presented for those who own it or are considering a position. Do your own due diligence. I have... IMO Fintas..

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