You asked an explicit question, and I want to answer in a dissertation. How low? Maybe nine bucks. If one looks at things logically, Cypress might earn from $.50 to $.60 in the next year. My old 15:1 rule of thumb puts its stock price in the range of $9.00. However, anyone dealing with the stock market from a position of pure logic should expect to get killed: expectations; perceptions; greed; and lately a boundless optimism, seem to rule. Tax loss selling is helping to force Cypress lower right now, so perhaps it will get close to nine bucks by the end of the year. If it does, I'll buy some more.
Looking at next year, the Asian question is hard to quantify, but will slow things down and put pressure on IC prices. PC sales may go anywhere, from flat to up to down, but plenty of SRAMs will be sold. They just won't have much profit margin.
From my point of view, and I wouldn't pay you a nickel for it, the long-term viability of Cypress is excellent. Sooner or later, the cycle will switch and its stock price will rise to the high teens or low twenties. What we need to do is breed investors to live 900 years like Methuselah, so the short-term becomes less important. Got any ideas? Good luck out there. Sam |
