Generally, i agree on the relative overvaluation of the big erp vendors. However, it won't help the psychology for vantive stock.
However, After the Oracle fiasco, Vanitve's recruiting problems are likely to be over. You'll probably see the company very happy with sales force headcount additions in the March quarter. It may take some time to pull Oracle people away, but once they realize their options priced at $25 to $27 are likely to remain underwater for some time, they'll consider taking advantage of the long term prospects at vantive.
Recently, I've also been encouraged by Oracle's increasing partnerships with companies like itwo and vantive. With a single partnership, you could see oracle entering the market and competing with its partners. Given the extensive nature of oracle's partering now, I doubt they'd try to crush a partner - it would tick off all of the other partners too much.
Even if Vantive hits all its numbers, a tough market could limit upside until people gain confidence in 1999 estimates. I'd like to see such powerful business that the company can begin creating a more powerful hidden backlog.
Hey Steve Farber, do you think VNTV can grow into 1999 and 2000 at 40% or better? What about the y2k distraction in IS?
TD |
