>>Would anyone like to take a crack at earnings for the next 5 years, a growth rate thereafter, and an appropriate discount rate? It will be interesting to see the theoretical value that results and the assumptions that are made to get there.<<
Skpetic,
Come on, get real. You show me a 5 year plan that can define any company, and give me a realiable earnings forecast, and I will show you a long roll of toilet paper. What planet are you beamed down from?
Every day there are craters in the market on stocks that the "best" analysts in the world are following, and they are blowing earnings estimates all the time. I have seen companies with 5 year game plans, and it is pure fiction.
Some of your points are valid, THIS ONE AIN"T, and you know it. I can forecast 1-2 quarters in advance with some certainty on companies I know inside and out, and then have to speculate any further than that, particularly in a situation like this.
I have asked Jenkins, and Kelsall more than once, give me worst case, middle case, and best case. What IF all these things happen, what can your revenues be, what can you earn? They don't know best case, and if they did, I would be very SKEPTICal.
We all know we are betting on the come, and it is really not tougher than that. If it works, we hit home run, if it doesn't maybe we make a little, break even, and go onto to next. |
