Not
all the issues or facts are on the table yet, still a bunch
of wild cards in the deck that could change the betting on
the hand with the turn of a card.
BB,
Don't you believe these "wildcards" are already priced into AMAT? WS hates uncertainty more than anything and these are uncertain times for the tech sector, esp. the equipment stocks. Hell, I'm even scared. However, having said this, I also believe that WS prices into the stock most of the time worst case scenario and then some. Of course there are examples when this is not true. Last year's earnings disapointment of LRCX comes to mind. They said in advance earnings would fall short by a wide margin- nothing happened that day. When earnings were finally released-gasp!-the stock fell several points on this "surprise." However, I believe (and hope) that these events are anomalies, otherwise idiots are running the show. If there are still excesses in this market(there are IMO), they lie not with AMAT and LRCX and KLAC etc. etc. but with stocks like CSCO, MSFT, KO IMO. KO derives ~80% of its operating income from overseas(much more than AMAT) yet has not suffered in any substantial way. I know, I know, its a defensive play and people will always buy a Coke. But this alone cannot support a house of cards(Read:overvalued stock). There are still stocks out there who have a punshment coming to them. Until the market metes out its own form of justice on these issues, IMO we cannot see a resumption of the upward trend. Gladly, CSCO and MSFT are down a couple of points today. IMHO, they have many more to fall before they are at the levels of the equipment group.
Regards,
Brian |
