Microsoft - <b>When to short </b> Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Microsoft - When to short

MSFT 512.45

-0.9%

12:47 PM EST

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To: Sowbug who wrote (14)	12/10/1997 12:42:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	of 96

Y2K and MSFT I started a discussion on the ORCL thread about the possible negative impact of y2K; coincidence: a few days before the stock collapse of -29% of yesterday. What is the impact of Y2K on MSFT? Any thoughts? How would the argumentation for ORCL translate to MSFT? I expect that MSFT willl have tremendous upgrade income (win 3.X all have to upgrade to 32 bits OS; i.e. windows 95/98 or windows NT 4.0/5.0). But number of C/S implementations will decrease dramatically, IMHO. So the net effect on MSFT share price is hard to tell. John ------------ To: Tom C (8283 ) From: John Mansfield Wednesday, Dec 10 1997 11:25AM EST Reply # of 8287 Re: Y2K and Oracle Hi Tom! I have a similar feeling about Oracle! < I know of two large organizations (one is a government organization) that have a policy of no money for new systems until the y2k problem is fixed> This is what we will see increasingly the coming months! <but as we get closer to the date, the replace option of the fix or replace equations gets less likely. These packaged applications take a long time to implement> Right! In a more general way, increasingly all software vendors will be judged by investors as: - part 1: what part of their services and products help solve the problem? - part 2: what part does not? and: - does the company change it's strategy to increase the first, and decrease the second part; and is it changed FAST enough? Example: Most Oracle software is compliant (only older versions are not). But there will probably be tons of applications written on top of Oracle (with their tools) that are not compliant. So Oracle could move consultants away from 'big-bang' replacement projects (mainframe to C/S) towards helping customers solving non-compliant stuff. So it is difficult to say what the total effect will be of Y2K on such companies. Any comments? Regards, John

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